A tale of two coaches

A couple weeks ago I had occasion to interview the new head coaches of both the Indiana and Purdue football programs. I can’t claim any keen insight into either man. Both interviews were by phone and neither lasted more than fifteen minutes. My talk with Purdue’s Jeff Brohm took place while he was driving, and I spoke to Coach Allen of IU as I sat in my car during a driving rainstorm.

I think I’ve improved at interviewing people over the last twenty years, but I have very little experience at telephone interviews. I’m uncomfortable with it, and I’m pretty sure my discomfort registers with the subjects. Which makes them more uncomfortable. Which makes me even more uncomfortable.

Anyway, as often happens with athletes and other people who interact with media-types on a regular basis, what I mostly got from Allen and Brohm was coach speak. It’s stuff that reads OK in an article because somebody semi-famous said it. But if you have to listen to it live or type it, it’s…..uh…..boring.   

But there were points in each discussion when the wall got a little chipped and a bit of light broke through.

Coach Allen’s son is a freshman on the team, signing with the Hoosiers after his Dad got the job. I don’t think it was nepotism. The kid had received offers from several Division I schools including Rutgers and South Florida. Neither of which are Ohio State or Alabama; but neither is IU. He was also ranked as one of the top 100 high school linebackers in the country by ESPN.  

I asked Allen about coaching his son, and he sounded like he got a little emotional. He talked about how hard it is to be both Dad and coach to a kid.

“It can be hard to separate,” he said. “I mean, he’s still your son, and you find your eyes going to him all the time. So that’s something you just have to focus on.”

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I came away from our talk liking Coach Allen. He sounded like a man determined to make Indiana’s program better, but I don’t get the impression he’s the kind of guy who’d endanger kids’ health to win (as his predecessor allegedly did).

I remember watching Jeff Brohm play for the University of Louisville. He was the ultimate Louisville guy. He grew up there and his Dad played for the Cardinals, as did two of his brothers. Brohm sounded to me like a very focused, ambitious man.

He gave me a lot of “We want to field a team that’s competitive and fights to win every game”.

“Purdue is a place with great academics, and West Lafayette is a great college town.” (Wait, what was that last part?)

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The most recent Purdue team that was fun to watch.

“People are starving for success, and they want to see the football program step up and do well. We need to deliver.”

All of which are perfectly acceptable, standard-type quotes for somebody coming into a job where the prior coach won like two games per year. Then I asked him whether it was hard to recruit at Purdue, considering their recent futility.

“We have a lot to offer at Purdue,” he says. “The academic reputation, the Big Ten conference and the opportunity to play against the best teams in the country. And, to be honest, playing time. We don’t have the depth we’d like, so a guy can come in and be a difference-maker.”

I thought the last part was a pretty candid statement. He’s all but admitting that it’s lean times in the Purdue football cupboard, and that he can get good athletes because last year’s starters may not be as good as incoming freshman or transfers.

After we wrapped up the interview, I told him that I was a Louisville alum and enjoyed watching him play. He sounded like he was happy to hear that. (Which is kind of a Louisville thing. If you meet somebody out of town and find you’re both from Indianapolis, it’s like, “so what?”  But if you’re both from Louisville, you immediately talk about 1) what neighborhood did you grow up in, 2) what Catholic parish did you attend, and 3) do you have access to Derby tickets.)

Then he said “Oh, yeah? When did you graduate?”

“1980. So, like, a long time ago.”

“Oh…….okay….”. After a bit of awkward silence, we ended the call.

I guess I sound younger than I am.  

       

 

Pro football: Not doomed, but has a bad cold

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A few years ago Dallas Mavericks owner and IU alum Mark Cuban made some waves with comments about the NFL. In an interview on ESPN and a detailed Facebook post, he said the NFL is “doomed” in the long run (which he implied was about ten years). He said that the problems were oversaturation, declining youth football participation rates, player behavior, changes to broadcast TV, and fantasy football.

A lot has happened in the intervening three years. I agree that the first four are a problem, but I do think he misunderstands the appeal of fantasy football. He seems (or seemed at the time) to think that FF is entirely technology-dependent, and people will move on to other pastimes. As I’ve written in this blog before, that certainly hasn’t always been the case. And rotisserie baseball leagues are still going strong, and pre-date fantasy football.

If I were making Cuban’s argument, I’d add that the NFL product these days is virtually unwatchable. Three plays. Punt. Commercials. Two minute drive ends at fourth and long. Commercials. Field goal. Commercials. Replay challenge. Commercials. Kickoff. Commercials. Etc, etc. etc…..

It’s telling that the NFL season package includes an option to watch any game shortened to 45 minutes. 45 minutes of action from three and a half hours of TV time. And some people think baseball is boring?

I like sports. I like watching baseball, basketball, soccer, horse racing, college football, and even hockey on occasion. And I do watch the Indianapolis Colts, if only to keep up with my friends’ conversations. But if I’m watching NFL football, odds are I’m also doing something else, like reading or keeping up with my fantasy players. There are just too many stoppages of action and players standing around to hold my full attention.

But I don’t think the NFL is going away anytime soon. Not because the games are so compelling, or people are so loyal to their teams. It’s because NFL football is an especially good vehicle for gambling.

Compared to the other mainstream sports, the NFL plays relatively infrequently. With only 16 regular season games, bettors have plenty of time to think about the bet, absorb new information, and chase down rumors. If a star player takes a fastball off his wrist in tonight’s baseball game, you have a only a brief window to find out if it’s something serious. In the NFL, they have daily practice reports leading up to the next game six or seven days later.

Since the NFL has the least effective union in pro sports, players in their prime almost never change teams, so season-long totals bets (i.e., wagering on the total number of wins) are less dicey. And the bettor doesn’t have to factor in the value of a player changing teams for a single-game wager in mid-season.  

Key numbers (most notably three and seven) are much more important when betting football than other sports. Between 2003 and 2013, over a third of all NFL games were decided by exactly three, seven, or ten points. Which is why you see a lot of point spreads hovering within half a point of those spreads. In contrast, the top three key numbers for NBA betting are 7, 5, and 6. Only about 18% of all games end on one of those. Reliable key numbers tease the bettor into thinking that half-point on one side of the line means a payday.

The NFL has also escaped any major point-shaving scandals. Players shooting it out in strip club parking lots? Sure. DUIs, domestic violence, and drug use? Obviously. But nobody fixing games. At least none that have come to light. The worst gambling scandal to touch the NFL was Paul Hornung and Alex Karras betting NFL games back in the early 1960s. (Naturally, Hornung was a Louisville kid. Man, I love my hometown.)

So bettors may have a little more confidence that the games are played on the up-and-up. (There is, of course, the opposite view.  If it was announced a particular horse race was fixed, you’d set records for the amount of money wagered, with every horseplayer in the country figuring he or she could dope out who was most likely to throw the race. But horseplayers are a different breed, anyway. Most accept corruption as an essential part of the experience, and only get frustrated at how much the state or city takes off the top in taxes.)

The American Gaming Association estimates that 90 billion dollars will be wagered on college and pro football this year, with only 2 billion of that bet legally at Nevada casinos. The rest will go to offshore sports books, pools organized at fraternal/social organizations, or Slick Sid down at the neighborhood tavern. And that total doesn’t even include the explosion in daily fantasy sports, which were in their infancy when Cuban made his case.  

So I think Cuban’s estimate of the NFL lifespan is wrong, because he either doesn’t understand or doesn’t want to acknowledge the importance of wagering to the experience. Daily fantasy sports might die out, because all the suckers will get tired of losing money to the consortiums (consortia?) who use private servers and compete as a full time gig. But I don’t see straight wagering going anywhere. NFL football dominates television on Sundays, and betting is the only thing that makes it bearable.

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Another signing event. In addition to the book release party on November 9 from 7 PM – 9 PM at Fountain Square Brewery (1301 Barth Ave., Indianapolis), I’ll be signing at Indy Reads Bookstore on Sunday, November 13 from 2 PM – 4 PM. The bookstore is a non-profit (as am I, though not intentionally) and a portion of all sales there will go to Indianapolis literacy programs. So your choice: a free pint at the party, or a worthwhile charitable organization at Indy Reads (911 Massachusetts Ave, Indianapolis). Or both! I won’t judge.

 

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Photo by Conman33